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The Traditional Shopping Season Does Not Make the U.S. Economic Recovery

Department stores such as the flood flow, swept the shelves of goods, rickety shopping cart, which come filled with merchandise buying, as if the whole city have been looted. American Heritage shopping season, “Black Friday” madness scenes, observers feel that the United States each year so that ushered in the hope of economic recovery.

But also at the same time, because people have too many opportunities to over-eating and consumption, many people stumbled into the New Year after the suddenly contrite, is not too indulgent with yourself? Holiday is a self-discipline of human ordeal. For many investors, the shopping season is a test of their economic outlook, “skill” an important moment. Has been sluggish for several days by the U.S. economy is not a holiday shopping will be able to immediately back on track.

National Retail Federation survey, “Black Friday” weekend retail traffic during the United States increased by 8.7% year on year, average spending per customer increased by 6.4% year on year. The Association’s member companies have annual revenue of 20-40% is not so due to the holiday shopping season.

Although this means that if a shopping season, business is good enough, they can let the economy get a boost in the short term. Recent economic data also revealed a good sign of U.S. consumption in turn, the country’s consumer spending in October rose 0.4%, personal income also rose 0.5%, or top in the year. To be sure, in a proportion of GDP spending more than 70% of the economy, increase income and expenditure is indeed a good thing.

Perhaps the Fed’s thinking in accordance with these goals are ambitious spending scenarios, you can temporarily be allowed to name the quantitative easing policy. Consumers to spend money we make persistent efforts to induce the Fed to make dollars, it might even push down the current savings rate of 5.7%. However, the long term, difficult to say that the shopping season reckless massive “shopping” behavior, consumers themselves or the economy will do any good.

This round of shopping also highlights the weakness of the U.S. economy: income and liabilities of the serious potential risks do not match. Maxed out credit cards to consumers who, in the end still have to tighten their belts, spending today will deprive consumers of tomorrow. Used to pay debt and support the consumption of what the final income from anywhere, has far less clear.

In addition, the fact that durable goods orders fell sharply enough to alarm the U.S. economic recovery. October’s overall durable goods orders fell 3.3%, a decline the most in two years. Unusual is that all industries have a new sub-item orders fell, which is difficult to find an excuse for this stock volatility.

Maybe after a carnival in the shopping season, Americans gradually began afterwards, people began to realize that they should begin to return to the traditional, thrifty and put coins into the cookie jar, not to buy more cookies.

But perhaps they also will see that before the outbreak of the depression after the consumption-led economic growth up even less vulnerable. If so, the Fed will definitely buy more bonds. The Fed may have realized that only quantitative easing in order to save the economy! To maintain this consumer momentum, maintain this enthusiasm for shares of shopping, only printing, only loose.

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